analytical Q

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Table of Contents

1 Different Kinds of Decision Makers
2 The Basics
3 To Be or Not To Be
4 Multiple Attributes
5 Sequential Decisions
6 Decision Criteria
7 Flexibility and Robustness
8 Number of  Decision Makers
9 Human Judgement
10 Summary

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Chapter 1

Different Kinds of Decision Makers

Differentiated by: information seeking, aversion to risk, uncertainty resolution, analytical capability, action.  What kind are you?  Take the test in appendix one.

  1. The indecisive: as described below:
  • Inaction: sit on it and not doing anything about it for fear of opening a can of worms or get bad news:  procrastination
  • Analysis-paralysis, but procrastinate the decision-making.
  • Expend too much effort on trivial problems, i.e. those that do not require full-blown analysis.
  • Analyse but don't decide until few alternatives are left.  Wait till the very last minute to decide.
  • Biased by other people's opinions
  • Sunk-cost bias, often to justify less effort or payoff.
  1. Gut feel, no analysis at all, just go for it.  Already convinced without enough evidence.
  2. Decision making by consensus, by taking a survey of what everyone else thinks.
  3. The rational decision maker (uses all the techniques above), good decisions does not equal good outcomes
  4. Wait and see - until there's only one left or panic sets in.
  5. Satisficer: what is good enough but not the best
  6. Optimiser: optimisation, aims for the best
  7. Value-focussed
  8. Alternative driven: deal prone, variety seeking.
  9. Learner vs the abdicator .  The learner wants to understand.  The abdicator pays someone else to decide, to do it