analytical Q Suggest a Link Contact Deregulation Energy

Table 2 Comparison of Alternative Approaches

Approaches Group scenario-contingent assessment Decision analysis Survey; polling Event tracking Stakeholder analysis Relative ranking Statistical methods: survival modelling, Bayesian regression
Type judgmental judgmental judgmental non-judgmental both both non-judgmental
Probability subjective subjective subjective frequentist frequentist frequentist frequentist, subjective
Aggregation behavioral individual, difficult to aggregate mathematical mathematical N/A mathematical mathematical
Simple? yes, just update the spreadsheet no, need knowledge of decision analysis no, interpretive element, timeliness of responses yes, once system is set up no, need to set it up yes, use a scoring system no, modeling required
Systematic? yes, regular conference calls no, if decision tree structure changes no, unless deadlines can be enforced yes, if some is assigned to track events no, harder to track unless generalisable yes, possible no, interpretive work involved
Defensible? yes, group accountability yes, causal inference yes, if sufficient response rate yes, objective data no, still an uncertain element no, unless predictive validity established yes
Acceptable? yes, from in-house experts, easy to use, but need conditional probabilities yes yes yes, but link to forecast not yet established yes yes yes